Survivor 48 | Ep. 9
NIU NAI - Night 15
“Every single person voted for Chrissy except for Chrissy, but I don’t think that it was unanimous in their hearts, I think it was unanimous on paper.” - Shauhin
Well said Shauhin aka the leader in the clubhouse through 8 episodes for the award of Narrator of the Season. This is the right read on the situation. He knows that Chrissy was the rare “easy vote” and that people wanted to go different directions with their vote.
My question is “Why didn’t people go different directions with their vote?” and though the answer is impossible to know, my best guesses are…
Everyone is afraid to “make their move” this early
The wrong people have the advantages to make things happen. Aka Eva isn’t capable of that level of gameplay.
The tribe dynamic is controlled by the “strong 5/6” and the gloves are about to come off.
I think one of these or whatever is behind mystery door 4 will surface in this episode. Too much tension and time is running out for people to make their move and shoot their shot.
“David is dead to me…he thinks he’s out there for the Olympic trials” - Kamilla
David lied to Kamilla. Then, he talked at Tribal about the strong people finally coming together and “running the game” in a way that Chrissy and Chrissy’s game didn’t agree with, which pissed Kamilla off. Totally get it. Now, back at camp he approaches her to say he floated her name out there? Uh-oh David, sounds like someone is getting a bit too comfortable in the game.
Better keep a close eye on that gallon of milk that is your game, Kamilla may be pulling a Lloyd Christmas in “Dumb and Dumber” pouring some laxative inside and we know the toilet situation on Survivor isn’t the best.
“Why is Kyle so hesitant to vote out Kamilla? I got to figure that out.” - David
Despite Kamilla’s strong convictions, I don’t think David will 100% be bamboozled this episode by Kamilla forming a militia with Kyle (turning on the strong 5), Star, and Mitch to start a fireworks display. He still has a strong position socially in the game with Mary, Joe, Eva, Shauhin, and Kyle. Plus, he’s a freak and could be tough to beat in any Immunity Challenge.
But will he figure out Kyle’s #1 is Kamilla and strike first before they can get him????
SUNRISE - Day 16
The strong alliance is FEELING GOOD!!! Vibes are HIGH!!!! The game they are playing is very straight forward. However, it’s becoming more and more clear that David is still on voting Kamilla and his number 1, Mary, is on that too.
Kyle poo poos the conversation in the group of six and then flips the switch in his one on one convo with Shauhin. Kyle is done playing the middle and playing into David’s game. Step 1 was villainizing David and Mary for targeting Kamilla because that will weaken Kyle and Shauhin’s individual games and bring them closer to what David wants.
However, the plot twists again when David alerts us that he knows it. David and Mary see the distance that Kyle and Shauhin are creating and it’s now time for them to play as well. First stop for them is Eva. Problem there is that Eva sees this only as paranoia because to her, the game is simple, we are a six and we have the numbers, and as long as we vote together it will simply draw a straight line from where everything is now to where it simply can be.
THAT’S NOT HOW SURVIVOR WORKS!!!
We know this is difficult for Eva to see because she doesn’t pick up on the social cues, but it’s going to be more difficult for Kyle and David to see eye to eye again because Kyle is a much more emotional person. Kyle is stirring inside and he cannot help but resurface the tension, confusion and his voice about why Kamilla belongs and how the previous day went down.
However, I think Kyle is really struggling with containing his emotions, not speaking out, not revealing what he really thinks, not enjoying confrontation, and trying to channel his emotions into gameplay that will eliminate David and keep Kamilla.
I feel you Kyle. I would play the same way. I would feel the same way you are feeling around a guy like David.
EVA’S ADVANTAGE- Night 16
Eva had to sneak out of camp the night after the taco reward and though she thinks the coast is clear, it isn’t. Shauhin wakes up and sniffs it right out. He wakes up Joe, shushes him, and whispers in his ear what his spidey sense is telling him.
Like I said, Shauhin is the leader in the clubhouse of Narrator of the Season and the way he is playing and in tune with everything going on in the game, he may be leading my “Winner Watchlist” sooner than later.
Back to Eva…
EVA GETS AN EXTRA VOTE
Finding the scroll at the reward and sneaking out of camp has led Eva to some torches down the beach where an EXTRA VOTE advantage is all hers. That means Eva has now has a second advantage to pair with the Hidden Immunity Idol that Star gave to Eva.
But wait, there’s more…
SAFETY WITHOUT POWER
Eva is presented with a choice. She has a 50/50 chance at SAFETY WITHOUT POWER advantage or LOSING HER EXTRA VOTE. Note, Eva would not lose her vote, she would only lose the EXTRA VOTE she just earned.
Eva chooses correctly and WINS SAFETY WITHOUT POWER, good until the final 7, and this means she can leave Tribal without voting and live to see another day on Survivor. This is a HUGE WIN for Eva! Now, she has an even better second advantage in the game to go with her Hidden Immunity Idol.
But wait, there’s more…
HIDDEN IMMUNITY IDOL
Now that Eva has won her SAFETY WITHOUT POWER, she can walk away OR risk it for a 1/3 or 33.3% chance (she had to tell us the % chance 🤣) of earning a HIDDEN IMMUNITY IDOL, good until the final 5, but that would mean a 2/3 or 66.7% chance of LOSING HER SAFETY WITHOUT POWER advantage.
Hmmmm….
I had to pause the show and think this out quick before we learn what Eva does. On the one hand, she is right now in TERRIFIC shape, she has won SAFETY WITHOUT POWER and can walk away happy, plus, she already has a HIDDEN IMMUNITY IDOL. So, it should seem simple for her to walk away and not risk the unfavorable odds of losing SAFETY WITHOUT POWER. if say, Shauhin was in Eva’s position, I think the decision to risk it drastically different. On the other hand, if Eva does risk her SAFETY WITHOUT POWER and wins a second HIDDEN IMMUNITY IDOL, now she is able to play her whole game differently because she can more easily play that second idol for someone else and make her move.
Eva understands the stakes, she understands her position in the game, and the value that a second idol would have, but…
She decides to keep SAFETY WITHOUT POWER. Smart decision. Given her position in the game and the artillery she is already carrying, there isn’t enough desperation or incentive to push for her to risk it.
The main takeaway here is two things. One, Shauhin knew she left camp and he put the pieces together that the reward had something more than tacos and Eva was going to cash it in. So, the real question is how will this knowledge impact relationships and the game going forward? The second takeaway is wondering “how the fans, players, and producers felt about Eva being the one to find the reward (read episode 7 blog for my conspiracy theory) and her being the one to play this risk/reward game and not someone else?” because to this fan, I would’ve preferred someone else to have been there over Eva. I love Eva, I’m a fan of Eva’s, but I wanted someone else to play.
NIU NAI - Day 17
So what does Eva do??? Immediately tells Kyle, Shauhin and Joe. I love the reactions from Joe and Shauhin. Joe knew it would go down exactly like this because he 100% trusts Eva and she feels the same, and Shauhin doesn’t hold it against her because it was a trust builder between her and him AND knowing about it in real time was a way that Shauhin was able to build trust with Joe. Lastly, I think the biggest takeaway is that Kyle, Joe, and Shauhin know for certain that this advantage is in Eva’s hands and nobody else’s. That may be the most valuable piece of the puzzle because of anyone, they would likely be able to influence how Eva plays her advantages.
“David…I never went back on my word.” - Joe
The crack in the strong alliance has been formed. David’s suspicion of Kyle and Shauhin is correct, well, correct enough. The Chrissy vote and their behavior around camp has convinced David that his suspicion is correct, but his attempt to persuade Joe of it went off the rails when he tugged at the wrong belief in Joe’s psyche. Convincing Joe by telling him that he “went back on his word” at the dinner to vote Kamilla when he voted Chrissy is the crack that I think will end David’s potential in this game. Joe is “man of my word” personified. Big mistake by David and I think it’s going to cost him dearly.
NIU NAI - Day 17
Remember Star and Mitch? Yeah, I’m sure we aren’t the only ones who forgot about them. It’s surprising how little the conversation and courting of Star and Mitch’s votes in this impending conflict between David and other strong male forces at camp.
Though we get to see a glimpse of Mitch building a relationship with Star through channeling his Phys Ed teacher and teaching her to swim, that moment quickly gives way to Kyle further building his bond with Joe. To do so, Kyle makes himself vulnerable and comes clean about how the stress of the game is triggering past struggles and hard times in his life, including serving jail time.
Kyle’s vulnerability helps connect him more deeply to Joe. Joe connects with Kyle’s troubles of his past and how hard times don’t define him and shares intimate details of his father spending time in jail. The bigger point here is that in Survivor you have to build relationships and trust with people to be successful. To do that, you need to ask questions and answer questions that create vulnerability and lead to an emotional feeling which leads you to connection. To quote Jeff, “That’s how ya do it on Survivor!”. Without vulnerability there is no emotion, and without emotion, there is no connection.
Joe is connecting with people left and right but his number one is Eva. Now, he has to approach Eva with a difficult conversation about what is really going on with the David and Mary dynamic at camp. Joe has to lead with empathy and does. He knows that Eva doesn’t pick up on people lying and she doesn’t know how to “read between the lines”. We also know that Joe is playing an honorable game and Eva is a giant part of that. I guess it leads you to wonder how Eva’s limitations and Joe’s honorable game can progress forward together in the game. Can that be a winning combination for one of them? Can Eva see beyond the straightforward game that she has been playing with two advantages to make the moves Joe thinks they need to make? Can Joe find a way to convince Eva to make tough decisions that go against her thinking?
I’m excited to see how those questions will be answered.
IMMUNITY CHALLENGE - Day 17
REWARD - Ham and Cheese wraps, crackers, dip, juice, soda, peach cobbler and chocolate covered strawberries.
The challenge has just begun and all I can think is how there is no way that David will lose this challenge with biceps like his. I feel like this challenge is build for him.
Certainly, this challenge was not built for Star and Mary who immediately drop, nor is this challenge built for people who lose focus like Shauhin who nearly loses his ball. Literally before I finished typing this, Kamilla is gone and soon after Eva loses focus and loses her ball and is out.
Challenge comes down to Shauhin, Joe, Kyle, and David.
Shauhin can only make a joke about how much of a joke this challenge is because of who he was up against, aka the final remaining 3.
Kyle lost focus and steps off the platform and is out. Joe nearly loses his ball and nearly steps off leaving him with his back against the wall against David who hasn’t budged an inch.
We are at another mono y mono duel between Joe and David for a chance at immunity and a guaranteed spot in the final 8.
David’s comment to Joe is that he is picking him for the reward anyway. I love how the players on the bench tell him to shut up with the rest of America.
Then, out of nowhere, David loosens his position or grip or something, the ball slips down, and in his attempt to recover, he steps off the platform and loses!
JOE WINS IMMUNITY!!! He was in a vulnerable position, nearly out of it, but he kept fighting and David made the mistake and Joe now is safe at Tribal.
Joe chooses Mitch to enjoy the reward with him, showing another moment of humanity because Mitch hasn’t had a food reward, Shauhin, and Eva. No surprises in these choices. A balance of humanity and alliance management. That’s Joe isn’t? He’s playing an honorable game and straight up game as best you can. Everyone knows it and his choices for reward reflect it. He’s built relationships with most everyone and I can see him at the final 3 easily.
POST-TRIBAL COUNCIL SCRAMBLE- Day 17
After a devastating loss at the Immunity Challenge, David is a broken man. He’s disappointed with himself because he should have won, Mary is the Survivor girlfriend left to console David and help him work through it, but worst of all, he is broken because he cannot see the chessboard of the game. He’s lost. He’s desperate. He’s vulnerable.
David and Mary are on the outs and nobody is talking to them. They still want to vote Kamilla but their paranoia of an idol being played for her has gotten the best of them and all they could do was land on the next “easy vote” in Mitch.
It feels like David will be voted out easily.
REWARD
Mitch is back on screen and his desire to take out David is music to Shauhin’s ears because he’s been seeing this move for days. I love that the editors did a flashback to Shauhin planting the seeds of doubt about David to Kamilla, Joe, and Kyle.
BACK TO THE SCRAMBLE
The most compelling storyline heading into Tribal is the internal conflict that Eva faces. Does she vote out Mitch because that’s who David and Mary, aka her core alliance thus far, are telling her? or Does she vote out David because Kyle, Shauhin and more are looking to vote that way? What makes it so compelling is that Eva can only see the black and white, she either trusts you or doesn’t trust you, and there are no in betweens, no gray area. Plus, she has Joe who she can 100% trust and who is literally willing to risk his game to be Eva’s number 1 ally and roll with her decisions regardless of how it impacts his own game.
PREDICTION: Eva and Joe vote with David and Mary but it isn’t enough and David gets voted out 5-4.
TRIBAL COUNCIL - Night 17
The game has entered into a new phase of the game that’s tighter and has greater emotional relationships. This season has really taken shape and the players themselves are aware that loyalty, strength, and straightforward/honest gameplay has been a major influence thus far.
It’s interesting to watch the players be so aware of the season dynamics and feel calm around it, feel like they have to tip-toe, feel they must adapt, and feel that if they were on some other season things would be much different. It sounds like some of the remaining players (Mitch, Kamilla, Star, maybe more) are feeling that way and are struggling to find their place in this game. Similarly, gameplay and the direction of this season for players like David, Joe, Shauhin, and Eva is how they wanted to play Survivor and would’ve been struggling on past seasons.
Let’s get a third member of the jury.
VOTES
DAVID - 6
MITCH - 3
And with a looooonnnnnngg dramatic pause, staredown with Joe, and open mouth of disbelief from Mary, David is voted out and becomes the third member of the jury. The vote was no surprise. We knew that Shauhin, Kyle, Kamilla, and Joe were voting David and we knew that David and Mary were voting Mitch. In the end, Mitch and Eva voted David as well and that was enough to send David and his biceps to Ponderosa.
I think David’s gameplay took him as far as he could really go. I think if he played Survivor 100 times, the third jury member is about the best he is going to do playing the way he did. Could he have gone on a challenge winning hot streak and made it to final 7 or 6, sure, but on average, the lapse of focus he had to lose the challenge was going to happen more times than not. Also, he played the only way the physically strong guy on Survivor typically plays - type a, control everything, intimidate, and try to outplay people in challenges to progress forward. The problem with that is what Shauhin laid out a few episodes ago, the physical threats eventually compete to be top dog, and that’s what happened. Joe’s softer self was always going to outwit and outlast David, and with the challenge win in this episode, even outplay David.
As we pour a glass of milk out for David, we know the game will shift once again. The strong alliance is dead and the individual game and alliance structures will change. With David gone, my prediction is the savvy players will begin the endgame jockeying to make winning moves. The teaser previewed it and it comes as no surprise to think that the target will shift toward Joe and Eva. Ultimately, Mitch, Star, Mary, Shauhin, Kamilla, and Kyle know that their best chances at winning doesn’t include competing against Joe or Eva at Final Tribal Council, but the question becomes, how will they navigate the firepower of Eva’s advantages, their threat of winning Immunity Challenges, and most of all, the trust they’ve built with everyone in the game to this point?
I can’t wait to find out next week!
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